Is the U.S. Economy Weakening?

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In recent years, there has been a growing narrative suggesting that the United States is experiencing a declineThis perspective frames America's dominance as a unipolar superpower coming to an end and posits the emergence of a multipolar world, with Asia, particularly China, becoming the new epicenter of global power.

When examining the timeline of America's perceived weakening, opinions varySome attribute this decline to the onset of the War on Terror around two decades ago, while others point to the 2008 financial crisis as a significant turning pointYet, there are those who believe that the true moment of decline began with the hasty U.Swithdrawal from AfghanistanMore recently, a poignant remark from a Chinese official asserting that "the U.Shas no right to speak to China from a position of strength" has also gained attention as a symbolic marker of changing dynamics.

When analyzing whether America has genuinely weakened compared to its own historical performance, the notion of strength and weakness becomes a relative concept

Two dimensions must be considered: a comparison with America's past and with other nationsIn the context of its own history, the U.Sis currently witnessing unprecedented strengthEconomic indicators such as GDP continue to rise, and technological advancements are at an all-time highOn this front, America appears to be thriving.

To showcase this growth, consider the trajectory of the U.SGDP over the past few decadesIn 1991, the U.SGDP was approximately $6.2 trillion, with a per capita income of $24,000. Moving forward to 2001, the GDP had surged to $10.6 trillion, with per capita income reaching $37,000. By 2011, the GDP hit $15.5 trillion, elevating per capita income to $50,000. Fast forward to 2021, the GDP soared to $23 trillion, with a per capita income of $69,000.

Over the past thirty years, GDP growth figures have been remarkable: 71% for the 1991 to 2001 period, 46% from 2001 to 2011, and 48% from 2011 to 2021. This consistent growth, averaging approximately 50% per decade, suggests that rather than weakening, America is on a trajectory of increasing strength.

However, it’s essential to evaluate America's global position in relation to other countries

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked a significant point in history, making the subsequent three decades a period where the U.Sstood largely unchallengedIn retrospect, the following years saw Russia in a weakened state, Japan entering a prolonged economic stagnation, and the European Union still in its infancy regarding economic integration, with China in the early stages of development.

To emphasize this point, when we examine Japan’s economy—once the world's second-largest—we find that its economic progress has stagnated over the past thirty yearsThe GDP of Japan grew from $3.6 trillion in 1991 to $4.9 trillion in 2021, yet its proportion of the U.SGDP dwindled from 58% in 1991 to a mere 21% by 2021. This trajectory illustrates that while the U.Shas continued to expand, Japan's position has indeed weakened significantly.

The story of the European Union is similar

For a considerable part of the last thirty years, it was seen as an economic bloc capable of rivaling the U.SIn 1991, the EU's GDP was already 8% higher than that of the U.SHowever, as the years progressed, the EU faced economic stagnation, with the U.Ssurpassing it around 2000. By 2008, the EU's GDP briefly regained the upper hand, exceeding the U.SGDP by 10%. Yet, this victory was short-lived as the EU succumbed to the debt crisis that followed, dropping to 73% of the U.SGDP by 2021.

Current tensions arising from war and inflation further complicate the EU's economic situationHistorical patterns show that when the U.Sencounters economic challenges, the EU often finds itself in dire straits as wellFor example, the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 triggered a recession in EuropeSimilarly, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis led to the EU's debt crisisPresent-day challenges posed by the pandemic and ongoing conflicts indicate that the EU may once again be on the brink of economic turmoil.

Despite these challenges, when measuring the strength of the U.S

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economy against its own history and major economies like Japan and the European Union, the U.Semerges as more robust than everThe world’s largest corporations are predominantly American, with little competition from smaller economic entities such as India, South Korea, and the ASEAN nations.

Examining the global GDP landscape, America's share has remained relatively stableIn 1991, the U.Saccounted for 25.7% of global GDP, which slightly decreased to 24.7% in 2020. Over the past three decades, the U.S.'s GDP share has fluctuated, achieving its peak of 31.6% in 2001 and its lowest at 21.2% in 2011, but has generally stabilized around a quarter of the world's total economic output.

The perceived decline of U.Sstrength largely stems from China's meteoric riseIn 1991, China contributed a mere $0.38 trillion to global GDP—just 6% of the U.S

totalBy comparison, the GDP of the EU was comparable to that of the U.S., and Japan held a significant 58%. Today, the scales have dramatically shifted.

To visualize this, consider the context of a nation currently accounting for only 6% of global GDP—which mirrors China’s position in 1991. With 2021 GDP stats showing China at $17.7 trillion, countries like the Netherlands, Iran, and Indonesia fall into the category of economies with roughly $1 trillion GDPComparing their significance today reflects how the U.Sperceived China three decades ago—as almost negligible.

Nonetheless, fueled by the hard work and relentless efforts of its population, China has scaled heights previously unimaginableThrough a designated focus on low-end industries for survival, mid-range industries for improved living standards, and high-end industries for a better quality of life, China has blossomed

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